September 27, 2022

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Editor’s note: This story originally appeared on Construction Coverage.

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The residential real estate market in the US experienced an unprecedented increase in home prices between 2020 and 2022, but signs this spring and summer indicate that the market is cooling down.

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Current home sales in the US have declined for five consecutive months, including a 5.4% drop in June. Inventory is rising while mortgage applications have declined as more buyers are driven by higher prices and rising interest rates. And with buyers gaining power in the market, homes are staying on the market longer, the rate of increase in home prices has slowed, and more sellers are lowering prices.

The rapid rise in prices over the past two years and the current market downturn have brought back memories of the housing crash of the mid-2000s for many home buyers and homeowners. A survey earlier this year found that more than 3 in 4 buyers and sellers believed the US was in the midst of a housing bubble.

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Despite these concerns, a recent Zillow survey found that 60% of real estate experts believe that recent conditions in the housing market have not created a bubble. Instead, experts report that market fundamentals and strong mortgage lending practices have limited the bubble’s risk. While price growth may continue to slow, the type of major corrections seen in the mid-2000s are unlikely.

In fact, one of the conditions contributing to the current housing boom is a product of a past crash: low inventory. When the collapse of the housing market triggered the Great Recession, the construction industry suffered major losses. Many home builders suffered a sharp drop in revenue or were wiped out completely.

To determine the locations where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peaks, researchers at Construction Coverage used an inflation-adjusted percentage change in average home price between June 2022 and the peak month before December 2007. calculated. Read more about our methodology at the end.

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There are large US metropolitan areas (population 1 million or more) where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peak.

15. Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
Calhoun Lake, MinneapolisRoger Silgender/Shutterstock.com Percentage change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -6.1% Total change in average home value (inflation-adjusted): -$24,479 Current median home value ($2022): $379,145 pre-2008 Peak median home price ($2022): $403,624 pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $265,988 pre-2008 peak date: December 2005 14. Tucson, AZ
Tucson, ArizonaSean-Pavone/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -6.5% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$24,002 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $347,181 Ex- 2008 Peak Median Home Value ($2022): $371,183 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value (Unadjusted Dollars): $249,435 Pre-2008 Peak Date: May 2006 13. Sacramento, CA
Sacramento, CaliforniaEd Gavryush/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -8.1% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$55,097 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $626,326 pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price ($2022): $681,423 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $449,058 Pre-2008 Peak Date: December 2005 12. Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL
meunierd/Shutterstock.com Percentage change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -8.2% Total change in median home price (inflation-adjusted): -$40,729 Current median home value ($2022): $456,489 pre-2008 peak Median Home Price ($2022): $497,218 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $338,108 Pre-2008 Peak Date: November 2006 11. Cleveland, OH
Cleveland, Ohiof11photo/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -9.2% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$22,362 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $219,635 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value ($2022): 241,997 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value (Unadjusted Dollars): $153,426 Pre-2008 Peak Date: December 2004 10. Philadelphia, PA
philadelphia city viewTupungato/Shutterstock.com Percentage change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -10.1% Total change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -$37,912 Current median home value ($2022): $336,380 pre-2008 peak Median Home Price ($2022): $374,292 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $254,144 Pre-2008 Peak Date: October 2006 9. Providence, RI
Providence CollegeJohn Billaus/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -11.9% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$60,790 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $449,970 pre-2008 Peak median home price ($2022): $510,760 pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $336,591 pre-2008 peak date: December 2005 8. Detroit, MI
DetroitJason Grindle/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -13.0% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$36,393 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $243,922 pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value ($2022): $280,315 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value (Unadjusted Dollars): $172,394 Pre-2008 Peak Date: December 2003 7. Virginia Beach, VA
Virginia Beach, VirginiaJoMo333/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Median Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -14.5% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$55,225 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $325,380 Pre-2008 Peak Median home price ($2022): $380,605 pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $259,192 pre-2008 peak date: December 2006 6. New York, NY
Rain in New York City, New YorkMartchan/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -14.7% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$105,854 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $614,826 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price ($2022): $720,680 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $484,297 Pre-2008 Peak Date: May 2006 5. Las Vegas, NV
Las Vegas SkylineLittlenySTock/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -15.4% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$82,677 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $453,682 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price ($2022): $536,359 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $360,433 Pre-2008 Peak Date: May 2006 4. Washington, DC
House in Washington, DCRichard Cavallari/Shutterstock.com Percentage change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -20.3% Total change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -$141,503 Current median home value ($2022): $556,296 pre-2008 Peak median home value ($2022): $697,799 pre-2008 peak median home value (unadjusted dollars): $468,921 Pre-2008 peak date: May 2006 3. Hartford, CT
Hartford, ConnecticutSean Pavone/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -22.6% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$94,250 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $322,838 pre-2008 Peak median home price ($2022): $417,088 pre-2008 peak median home price (unadjusted dollars): $283,203 pre-2008 peak date: October 2006 2. Chicago, IL
Moondogpro/Shutterstock.com Percentage Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -23.7% Total Change in Average Home Value (inflation-adjusted): -$97,145 Current Median Home Value ($2022): $312,752 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price ($2022): $409,897 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Price (Unadjusted Dollars): $275,451 Pre-2008 Peak Date: May 2006 1. Baltimore, MD
baltimoref11photo/Shutterstock.com Percentage change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -24.6% total change in median home value (inflation-adjusted): -$122,761 Current median home value ($2022): $377,062 pre-2008 peak Median Home Value ($2022): $499,823 Pre-2008 Peak Median Home Value (Unadjusted Dollars): $339,380 Pre-2008 Peak Date: October 2006 Methodology
A man studies financial data on his computerNicoelNino / Shutterstock.com

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Data used in this analysis is from housing data from Zillow. To determine the locations where home prices are still below their pre-Great Recession peaks, researchers at Construction Coverage used an inflation-adjusted percentage change in average home price between June 2022 and the peak month before December 2007. calculated. In the event of a tie, the place with the lower total change in average home value (inflation-adjusted) was ranked higher. To improve relevance, only metropolitan areas with at least 100,000 residents were included. Additionally, metropolises were divided into groups based on population size: small (100,000–349,999), medium-sized (350,000–999,999), and large (1,000,000 or more).

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