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Growth in Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) April Career Climbers / May 15, 2023
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) rose to 116.18 in April from a downwardly revised 115.51 in March 2023. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index rises, employment is likely to rise as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that there is going to be a change in the trend of job gains or losses in the coming months.
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“The ETI ticked up in April and remains elevated, although it looks to peak in March 2022,” said Frank Steimer, senior economist at the Conference Board. “The index signals that job gains will continue over the next few months, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. We continue to predict a short and mild recession beginning in 2023, although it may take until the end of the year to see substantial weakness in job growth, or monthly job losses.
Stemmer said: “For now, the labor market remains strong and job growth continues. However, several labor indicators are showing some softness. Job openings and quits have decreased, layoffs have increased, and Compensation growth is slowing. Still, the labor market remains resilient and tighter than before the pandemic, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation. And reducing wage gains could prompt it to raise interest rates an additional 25 basis points.
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The unique combination of labor shortages and recession risks creates difficult dilemmas for employers. In fact, according to Q2 2023 results for the Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence™, 33 percent of CEOs expect to expand their workforce over the next 12 months, while 20 percent expect a net reduction in their workforce. are, and 46 percent expect little change. , The Conference Board has published a new Job Loss Risk Index to help business leaders better understand the risk of layoffs in their industry and the unique dynamics caused by the projected recession.
The April increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from four of its eight components: the proportion of involuntary part-time workers to all part-time workers, job openings, the percentage of firms with positions now able to fill No, and a percentage of respondents say they “hardly find jobs”.
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The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each proven accurate in its own field. Aggregating individual indicators into an overall index filters out the “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight key indicators of employment aggregated in the Employment Trends Index include:
Percentage of respondents who say they are “difficult to find a job” (Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®) Initial claims for unemployment insurance (US Department of Labor) Percentage of firms that are not yet able to fill positions (© National Federation of Independent) Business Research Foundation) Number of Workers Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) Proportion of Involuntarily Part-Time All Part-Time Workers (BLS) Job Openings (BLS)* Industrial Production ( Federal Reserve Board* Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (US Bureau of Economic Analysis)**
*Statistical imputation for most recent month
** Statistical imputation for the most recent two months
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index on Mondays at 10 a.m. ET, which releases the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Report each Friday. The technical notes in this series are available on the Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
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