December 9, 2023

The Republican Party has the lead again in the general ballot, and that gain has reached levels last seen in late July, according to RealClearPolitics averages for the closely watched indicator.

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It could be another sign that the GOP may be gaining some momentum as the November midterm election approaches, after improving Democratic prospects during the summer.

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Republicans Now Gaining 46.0% Support RCP average General ballots count, one percentage point ahead of Democrats at 45.0%.

The GOP took a 1-point lead last Wednesday, then saw a decline, but was back at that level by Tuesday, as shown in the chart below.

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That’s not a huge gain, but it is the best performance for Republicans in RCP’s data for general ballots since July 28, as Democrats had gains for most of August and September.

If this seat turns red, Republicans will have ‘probably a relatively comfortable House majority’.

Too “The Republican control of the House is not pre-determined,” say political analysts.

The general ballot refers to a voting question that asks voters which party they would support in a congressional election without naming individual candidates. Analysts see this as a useful indicator,

Other websites focused on political analysis and forecasting, such as FiveThirtyEight, Still Show Democrats the edge in their data for general ballots.

Election day is now five weeks away for the midterm competitions. Democrats have focused their campaigns on abortion rights after the Supreme Court’s June decision that reversed Roe v. Wade, while Republicans have captured Americans’ frustration with high inflation.

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The additional chart below is interactive and shows RCP data for the general ballot over a longer time frame.

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Republicans likely to control Senate rebound to 46%, a level last seen about 8 weeks ago