December 9, 2023

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shares of Apple It is down about 12% over the past month (about 21 trading days), trading at around $138 per share. This compares to the S&P 500 which is down about 10% over the same period. While technology names, in general, have taken a hit due to the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes and concerns about the broader economy, Apple has seen a sharp sell-off amid reports that demand for the latest iPhone 14 handsets has increased. that were launched. September remains weaker than expected. Per Bloomberg, Apple has asked its suppliers to put a hold on plans to increase production of the iPhone 14 series to 6 million units in the second half of the year. According to the report, Apple now aims to produce around 90 million handsets for the period, which is almost flat compared to last year. This has stunned investors, given that the iPhone remains Apple’s flagship product, accounting for about 53% of sales in the first nine months of this year.

However, now that Apple stock has seen a drop of about 12% over the past month, will it continue its downward trend in the near term, or is a rally imminent? According to historical performance, there is a Nearly equal chance of rise or fall in Apple stock next month, out of 133 cases Over the past ten years, Apple’s stock has seen a decline of 12% or more in twenty-one days, 68 of them As a result of which Apple’s stock is rising subsequent month (21 trading days). This historical pattern represents 68 out of 133, or Apple stock almost 51% likely to rise in the coming month, a neutral near-term outlook for the stock. View our analysis Apple stock likely to rise for more information.

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Calculation of ‘event probability’ and ‘increase probability’ using data from last ten years

  • After rising -8% or more in five days, the stock gained 56% over the next five days.
  • After rising -8% or more in ten days, the stock rose on 59% of opportunities over the next ten days
  • After rising -12% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose on 51% occasions over the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests that there is a slight upside potential for Apple’s stock in the near term.

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